Shockingly, I meant to write in greater detail leading up to the Oscars tonight, but instead, all I have to set my picks in stone is the ballot I submitted to indieWIRE. I didn't do too well with the Spirits last night, since I thought the IFP crowd would want to support Winter's Bone more. So ... what do I know?
I'm usually pretty good with Oscar, though, and while there's a very good chance I'll be off-base tonight, I think the last-minute rush to The King's Speech is a weird media-induced smokescreen. I believe it's still the year of The Social Network, but as you'll see from my ballot, I gave a "Should win" to Toy Story 3, my (at long last) named top film of 2010.
I'm also apparently the one person in the poll who thinks Geoffrey Rush will actually (apparently shock and) win for The King's Speech tonight. I took a considered leap.
With that said ... here are most of my pix:
Best Picture:
Will Win: “The Social Network”
Should Win: “Toy Story 3”
Best Director:
Will Win: David Fincher, “The Social Network”
Should Win: David Fincher, “The Social Network”
Best Actor:
Will Win: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
Should Win: Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”
Best Actress:
Will Win: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Should Win: Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine”
Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win: Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”
Should Win: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Best Supporting Actress:
Will Win: Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
Should Win: Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”
Best Original Screenplay:
Will Win: “The King’s Speech”
Should Win: “Inception”
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win: “The Social Network”
Should Win: “Toy Story 3”
Best Animated Feature:
Will Win: “Toy Story 3”
Should Win: “Toy Story 3”
Best Doc Feature:
Will Win: “Restrepo”
Should Win: “Inside Job”
Best Foreign Film:
Will Win: “Biutiful”
Should Win: “Dogtooth”
Best Cinematography:
Will Win: “True Grit”
Should Win: “Black Swan”, or “True Grit”
Best Original Score:
Will Win: “The Social Network”
Should Win: “The Social Network”