I'm always much more secure playing the guessing game before the Oscars than the Golden Globes. The Hollywood Foreign Press is such a relatively small group of people, it's hard to predict what they're ever going to do. While many of my predictions might as well have resulted from closing my eyes and saying "eenie, meenie, minie, moe," I figured it would be better to post my predictions now rather than try to convince anyone after-the-fact of what I thought.
I've already done this over at The Conversation, so rather than repeat all my comments, I'm just going to list my picks and predictions. If you're interested in comments and a bit more substance, feel free to check-out my post over there.
- Best Picture – Drama: Should win: The Aviator Will win: Million Dollar Baby
- Best Actress – Drama: Should win: Imelda Staunton for Vera Drake Will win: Hilary Swank for Million Dollar Baby
- Best Actor – Drama: Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio for The Aviator Will win: Don Cheadle for Hotel Rwanda (It's a more "important" film.)
- Best Picture – Musical/Comedy: Should win: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind Will win: Sideways
- Best Actress – Musical/Comedy: Should win: Kate Winslet for Eternal Sunshine Will win: Annette Bening for Being Julia
- Best Actor – Musical/Comedy: Should win: Jim Carrey for Eternal Sunshine Will win: Jamie Foxx for Ray
- Best Foreign Language Film: Should and will win: House of Flying Daggers
- Best Supporting Actress: Should and will win: Cate Blanchett for The Aviator
- Best Supporting Actor: Should win: Clive Owen for Closer Will win: Morgan Freeman for Million Dollar Baby
- Best Director: Really should win: Michel Gondry for Eternal Sunshine Nominated should win: Alexander Payne for Sideways Will win: Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby
- Best Screenplay: Should win: Charlie Kaufman for Eternal Sunshine Will win: Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor for Sideways
- Best Song and Best Score: Too much of a toss-up, so no predictions, but my votes would be for Wyclef Jean's "Million Voices" from Hotel Rwanda and Howard Shore's score for The Aviator.
- Best TV series – Drama: Should win: Deadwood Will win: Lost
- Best TV series – Comedy: Should win: Arrested Development Will win: Desperate Housewives
- Best Actress – Drama: Should win: Edie Falco for The Sopranos Will win: Joely Richardson for Nip/Tuck
- Best Actor – Drama: Should win: Ian McShane for Deadwood Will win: James Spader for Boston Legal
- Best Actress – Comedy: I imagine this will go to one of the Housewives because Sarah Jessica Parker has won repeatedly, and a win for Debra Messing would just be tragic. This one is "eenie, meenie ..." Should and will win: Marcia Cross for Desperate Housewives
- Best Actor – Comedy: Should win: Jason Bateman for Arrested Development Will win: Larry David for Curb Your Enthusiasm
I didn't see enough of the other TV categories (movie and miniseries related) to really make picks worth anything. I think both Iron-Jawed Angels and The Life and Death of Peter Sellers were highly flawed movies and, sadly, gigantic missed opportunities, although Geoffrey Rush should win for Best Actor in a Movie/Miniseries. I'll also be rooting for Drea De Matteo (The Sopranos) and Oliver Platt (Huff) in the Best Supporting Actress and Actor TV categories. I'll be back to night to live blog the show … at least as long as I stay interested in doing so. We'll see if my highly analytical in-depth analysis (HA!) bears any fruit.