OSCAR QUICK PREDICTS -- PREPARING FOR TORTURE

The Oscar nominations will be announced in half-an-hour. A few days ago, after the Golden Globes, I was having a discussion with a friend over what the final nominations would look like. He was convinced that Eternal Sunshine would get a Best Picture nomination. I'm pretty damn certain it won't. So just for kicks, I thought I'd jot down a few notes about the pending nominations:

• First, I'm not going to try to predict al the nominations, but I will go out on a limb with Best Picture and Best Director: As I mentioned, I don't think the true best film of the year (the past five years?!?) -- Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind -- will receive recognition this morning. I think the shoo-ins are The Aviator, Million Dollar Baby and Sideways. I think the remaining slots will go to either Closer, Finding Neverland, Hotel Rwanda, The Incredibles or Ray; at least all of them are more likely than Michel Gondry's film. I'm going to say Hotel Rwanda and Finding Neverland will get the nods, with Closer being a potential spoiler for one.

• As far as the director award, the nominations usually come very close to mimicking the DGA nominations, often with no more than one variation. This year won't be any different: Clint Eastwood, Martin Scorsese and Alexander Payne own three of the slots, and either Marc Forster (meh!) or Taylor Hackford (blech!) has a good shot for the final two slots. I'm guessing Forster will get the nod with Hackford being left out in the cold in favor of Mike Nichols for Closer. Terry George (Hotel Rwanda) could slide in as a dark horse as well, maybe even replacing Forster.

• The one nomination I would love to see this year (but won't) is an acting nod for Jeff Bridges in recognition of his brilliant performance in The Door in the Floor. Every tick (and chewing motion) that sometimes annoys me about Bridges is worked to perfection by the actor in this incredibly complex performance. Nobody saw the movie so I would be shocked to hear his name called, and I don't know that I would give him the award over Don Cheadle, Leonardo DiCaprio or Jamie Foxx, but he deserves to be in their company.

• The two foreign films that won't be receiving Best Foreign Film nominations this morning but were among the best movies I saw from 2004 are Bad Education and A Very Long Engagement. I finally saw the latter film from fantastic French filmmaker Jean-Pierre Jeunet this past weekend, and by the end of this month, I expect to be doing a bit of reediting to my Top 10 list. But thanks to the Academy's annoying rules regarding foreign film eligibility (only one film from any foreign country is eligible, and the country submits it), and neither Spain nor France submitting these films, the only chance either of them have for recognition is in other categories. (France wouldn't submit A Very Long Engagement because so much of the financing came from a Warner Bros.-owned company, making it too much of an American film.) Almodovar actually won the screenplay award (and a directing nomination) a couple years ago for Talk to Her; I wouldn't count on that happening again for Bad Education. It's too bad though because these are two of the best films this year.

That's enough for now. On to the noms … and I'll be back in a few when the headache sets-in.

Comments

[Vince Keenan]

I saw THE DOOR IN THE FLOOR, and I agree with you about Jeff Bridges. The movie as a whole was unsatisfying, but his performance was riveting. Easily one of the finest of the year. Right up there with Paul Giamatti's in SIDEWAYS. Naturally, they both got screwed this A.M.

[Aaron]

Vince: Well, as you'd know from my Top 10, I didn't find the movie unsatisfying at all (although I hated Basinger in it). It actually stuck with me for quite a while, and I really liked it. I definitely liked it more than We Don't Live Here Anymore, which whether it deserves to be or not, I put in a similar category.

And yeah, Giamatti was screwed, as was Jim Carey. Bridges, I never really expected him to get the recognition. Focus Features didn't push the film, and nobody saw it.